Order From Ashes

COVID-19 Gathers Force in Middle East

At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, displaced populations and conflict zones were considered especially vulnerable, driving early fears that the Middle East would be especially hard hit. The first wave of the pandemic shook Iraq and Iran, but the worst fears did not materialize, at least not initially. 

Now, however, cases are increasing across the region. The pandemic is straining areas already buckling under sanctions, armed conflict, regional rivalries, corruption, and economic depression. On this episode of Order from Ashes, international affairs researchers at The Century Foundation discuss how the pandemic is accelerating regional crises and why it has not yet led to any systemic change. (There’s more TCF analysis of the pandemic in the Middle East in the new roundtable, “Middle East Strained by COVID-19, But Not Transformed.”)

Participants include:

• Dina Esfandiary, fellow, The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Aron Lund, fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Lebanon, Neoliberalism's Proving Ground

Lebanon has served for decades as one of the world’s leading experiments in extreme libertarianism, illustrating what happens to a society with little to no government regulation or social protection. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the weaknesses of a health system suffering from corruption and gaping inequalities between public and private hospitals. What role have neoliberal international aid demands for austerity and privatization—known as the Washington Consensus—played in setting up Lebanon’s health system for failure? And what does Lebanon’s case show about the need to reinvest in strong public goods? 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, Sima Ghaddar joins Kareem Chehayeb, who in a recent commentary for The Century Foundation argued that austerity and privatization have left residents of Lebanon extremely vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Participants include:

• Kareem Chehayeb, journalist, Beirut
• Sima Ghaddar, doctoral candidate, University of California, Los Angeles
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Lessons from the European Union in Crisis

The European Union is the world’s most successful experiment in shared sovereignty, and its biggest, wealthiest social welfare state. It also has struggled with nationalism and fragmentation in the face of crises, from the 2008 global financial meltdown, to the 2015 migration wave and subsequent rise of the far right, to the ongoing stresses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In what ways has the European model worked, and in what ways has it failed? Only a revived international order can address global problems like health, finance, and climate change. Veteran observers of the European Union discuss the continent’s response to COVID-19, and suggest lessons for international cooperation going forward. 

Participants include:

• David Carretta, journalist, Brussels
• Rolla Scolari, journalist, Milan
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

A New World Order after the Pandemic?

The global crisis unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic will prompt a period of reflection and, potentially, a once-in-a-generation chance for sweeping policy change and reform. But the United States and the rest of the world have a checkered record during similar hinge points in modern history. 

After World War II, policymakers responded to widespread social collapse and upheaval with bold, visionary investments in a new international and domestic order, spending money on long-term institutions and programs that produced deep and lasting stability. But other critical moments ended up as missed opportunities, characterized by chauvinism and isolationism: the end of World War I, the end of the Cold War, and 9/11. 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, Ilan Goldenberg and Mieke Eoyang assess this history and argue that we aren’t necessarily condemned to repeat past mistakes. Today, Americans have a rare opportunity to dramatically transform government, society, and the international order for the better—or else risk worsening the defects that have left the world so vulnerable to the pandemic in the first place.

Participants include:

• Mieke Eoyang, vice president, Third Way
• Ilan Goldenberg, senior fellow, Center for a New American Security
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Virus and Oil Price Shocks Buffet the Gulf

The COVID-19 epidemic hit Iran and its neighboring countries early, and has tested health systems and governments across the region. A second crisis hit the region in early March, when oil prices plummeted after a decision by oil producers to flood the market. Our guest on this episode, Karen Young, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has been following both crises.

These twin shocks have shaken vulnerable people across a region already buffeted by conflicts and political crises. Countries like Iraq and Iran seem ill-positioned to handle a health emergency—and falling oil prices threaten to make the Iraqi state insolvent. The virus and the spiralling effects of an oil price war also highlight the deep connections among countries in the MIddle East, and between the Middle East and the world economy.

Participants include:

• Karen Young, resident fellow, American Enterprise Institute
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

What’s the Price of Giving Up on Human Rights and International Law?

During the Cold War, the United States promoted international law and human rights as a way to constrain its global rivals. Since the 1990s, however, Washington has more and more often dispensed with even the rhetorical cover of international law. The United States and its allies have habitually considered themselves exempt from international legal constraints.

The decades since the 2003 invasion of Iraq have witnessed an acceleration of this trend. What is the cost of a full-fledged abandonment of the norms promoted by international law and human rights? International law and Middle East policy scholar Aslı Ü. Bâli discusses the many disturbing practical outcomes of our current state of eroded international law, including the impact on sanctions regimes, assassinations, and wars.

Participants include:

• Aslı Ü. Bâli, UCLA professor of law
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Rupture in the Iraq–America partnership

Years of tension and slights between the governments of Iraq and the United States came to a head after the United States breached the terms of its partnership with Iraq with the assassination of a group of government officials outside Baghdad International Airport.

Now Iraq is asking the United States to withdraw its troops, and the United States is threatening sanctions against Iraq—one of its most important strategic partners in the Arab world.

How will this crisis affect security in Iraq and the resurgence of the Islamic State? How much of the relationship can be salvaged? What will be the costs for Iraq, the United States, and the surrounding region?

Participants include:

• Sajad Jiyad, managing director, Bayan Center
• Maria Fantappie, special adviser, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Sajad Jiyad is the managing director of Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies in Baghdad.

Maria Fantappie is a special adviser on the Middle East–North Africa region at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue in Switzerland.

Dubai Ports World and a New Form of Imperialism

A new report out today from TCF report examines Gulf expansionism through a case study of the Emirates-based company Dubai Ports World (DP World). This multinational is one of the world’s leading global port operators and logistics giants—and a source of power for the United Arab Emirates. 

A close look at its operations in the Horn of Africa reveals the ways that a government can exert control through a modern state-chartered company. A closer look at the operations of DP World also casts light on a key driver of disastrous state fragmentation in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. 

DP World functions like a modern-day version of the British East India Company, serving as both a foreign policy tool and a profit engine. The analysis in Advani’s report, and our discussion with him here, help explain how governments exert political power outside the confines of traditional statecraft.

Participants include:

• Rohan Advani, researcher
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

A Better Explanation for Powerful Armed Groups: Hybridity

From Libya to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond, countless militias, parties, “brigades,” “forces,” “battalions,” and “detachments” have emerged to directly challenge the formal state. 

These groups form a new category of actor, which draws power from the state, and at the same time competes with the state or even undermines it. The authors of a new report from The Century Foundation discuss the concept of “hybrid actor,” which allows us to make better sense of the pivotal players in conflict zones and shaky states across the Middle East, and beyond. 

Participants include:

• Renad Mansour, research fellow, Chatham House
• Dina Esfandiary, fellow, The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

How Is Iraq Managing Its Oil?

Iraq is the second-largest OPEC oil producer, believed to have huge unexploited reserves that will make the country increasingly rich as it modernizes its decrepit energy infrastructure. 

 

Iraq holds a strategic position at the center of regional rivalries, and is perhaps the only country that maintains close security, political, and economic relations with Iran, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other competing powers. The underdeveloped oil sector underlies much of Iraq’s significance, wealth, and potential power in the region.

 

An expert in Iraq’s oil sector and the international companies that compete for contracts in Iraq, Samya Kullab gives an overview of Iraq’s burgeoning oil sector, and its intersection with policy. 

 

Participants include:

1. Samya Kullab, senior correspondent, Iraq Oil Report
2. Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation