Order From Ashes

Popular Protest Redux in Iraq and Egypt

Nearly a decade after the Arab uprisings gripped the region, large-scale protests have broken out in Iraq and Egypt. In Iraq, arguably one of the most open political systems in the Arab world, authorities struck the protesters with surprising levels of violence. In Egypt, the surprise was that protests took place at all, given the historic levels of authoritarian repression.

What do the protests reveal about state failure—and what kind of pressure do they exert on governments to change? Iraq and Egypt, like many governments in the region, have rigid systems that appear incapable of serious changes in policy or governance. What can we learn from the latest round of revolts?

Participants include:

• Maria Fantappie, Iraq senior adviser, International Crisis Group
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Reviving the United Nations

This podcast is part of an ongoing TCF series that explores progressive policy proposals for America’s most pressing international priorities.

The United States is by far the most significant donor to the United Nations and has, for much of the UN’s history, been one of its primary boosters. American support for the United Nations has fluctuated, and, since President Trump took office, has plummeted. But Washington’s love-hate relationship with the United Nations and with the compromises and niceties of international diplomacy predates Trump, and has come in for bipartisan criticism.

However, a pressing global emergency like climate change, or another worldwide financial crisis, cannot be solved without the international system. How can the United States revive the effectiveness of the United Nations, so that the international institution can help address ongoing crises and manage burgeoning great-power competition between the United States, Russia, and China?

Participants include:

• Richard Gowan, UN Director, International Crisis Group
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Rethinking Israel–Palestine’s Stifling Status Quo

This podcast is part of an ongoing TCF series that explores progressive policy proposals for America’s most pressing international priorities.

On this podcast, we learn about the shifting views of Israelis and Palestinians, and the different visions of the future that they are considering in addition to the two states envisioned in the Oslo Accords—including confederation, a single state, annexation, and indefinite occupation. 

Politics in Israel–Palestine can seem unpredictable, but some long-term trends are clear. The Israeli electorate has moved decisively to the right, and support for a “two-state solution” has fallen to historic lows among both Palestinians and Israelis.

What are the possibilities for the United States to affect Israeli policies on settlements and annexation of occupied territory? 

Participants include:

• Dahlia Scheindlin, political scientist and fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Downgrading America’s Commitments in the Middle East

This podcast is part of an ongoing TCF series that explores progressive policy proposals for America’s most pressing international priorities.

America has had an inflated military presence since 9/11, especially in the Middle East. Defense budgets are historically bloated, and policymakers have avoided making choices about closing bases and reducing troop deployments. 

Political support is waning for the forever war and politicians from both major American parties agree that the United States needs to scale back its global military entanglements and set real priorities. The Middle East, many of them say, has occupied policy attention that should be directed to other, more pressing priorities. 

Now the tough questions concern the details: What would a right-sized U.S. military presence look like in the Middle East? If the U.S. military shouldn’t have quite so many bases in the region and troops deployed, what is the right amount? What wars should the United States be prepared to fight? How, politically, can American leaders sell the idea of containing threats instead of setting impossible but popular goals, like entirely eliminating terrorism? What’s a reasonable budget? 

Participants include:

• Mara Karlin, director of strategic studies, Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

A Smarter Iran Policy

This podcast is part of an ongoing TCF series that explores progressive policy proposals for America’s most pressing international priorities.

As part of our running series exploring in detail what an alternative progressive U.S. foreign policy would look like, on this episode of TCF World we turn to Iran. We analyze what an effective foreign policy toward Iran should look like, taking into account Iran’s destabilizing record of expansion and militarism in the Middle East.

Tensions with Iran are as high as they’ve been in decades, after U.S. President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor. Today, the most pressing matter is how to avoid an escalation with Iran that leads to war. 

If and when this crisis passes, what are the options for salvaging the deal, or managing the fallout of its collapse? The original nuclear deal was negotiated in 2015 and is known by its formal title, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Many of the deal’s supporters, including several candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, argue that the United States should reenter the original deal after Trump is no longer in office. We explore how the original deal could be revived, or what could take its place if it has completely collapsed by the time Trump’s successor takes office in 2021 or 2025. 

Participants include:

• Ariane Tabatabai, associate political scientist, RAND Corporation
• Dina Esfandiary, fellow, The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Defining a Progressive Middle East Policy

Progressives still have to figure out how to translate into policy widely shared concerns with global inequality, authoritarianism, climate change, and reflexive militarism. In this episode, Thanassis Cambanis, Michael Wahid Hanna, and Daniel Benaim discuss the contours of a future progressive foreign policy in the Middle East, what’s missing from the current debates, and the limits of American power.

Participants include:

• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Daniel Benaim, senior fellow, Center for American Progress, and visiting assistant professor, New York University

America’s Blind Spot on Palestine

 

For years, the United States has invested significant political capital in attempting to broker a peaceful resolution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. However, these attempts have largely failed. Israel’s occupation is more entrenched than most Americans realize, and Palestinian politics appear increasingly splintered. Many commentators and policymakers now believe a two-state solution is no longer viable. In this podcast, Khaled Elgindy identifies two main blind spots that have hobbled America’s role as an effective mediator: Israeli power and Palestinian politics.

Participants include:

• Khaled Elgindy, nonresident fellow, Brookings Institution
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

 

Contesting Sectarian Identity in Iraq

Although it’s still widely used by analysts and policymakers, the term “sectarianism” has distorted efforts to explain political dynamics in Iraq. Since 2003, Iraqi society has undergone significant transformations as a result of social, political, and other forces. Fanar Haddad discusses the drivers of political instability in Iraq. Sectarian dynamics have evolved, along with Iraqi views of nationalism. The political system has normalized, both domestically and regionally. A more inclusive notion of citizenship, Haddad argues, requires a strong institutional basis.

This podcast is part of “Citizenship and Its Discontents: The Struggle for Rights, Pluralism, and Inclusion in the Middle East” a TCF project supported by the Henry Luce Foundation.

Participants include:

• Fanar Haddad, senior research fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
• Rohan Advani, senior policy associate, The Century Foundation

[Arabic] LGBTQ Rights in Egypt

This podcast is in Arabic.

From the Queen Boat incident in 2001 to the waves of arrests following Mashrou’ Leila’s concert in Cairo in 2017, Egypt’s LGBTQ community has always endured a precarious position. In recent years, Egyptian authorities have directed a brutal crackdown against its members. Ahmed El Hady discusses the recent intensification of repression and the crisis facing LGBTQ Egyptians. El Hady, an activist and a neuroscientist, situates the struggle for LGBTQ rights in Egypt within the broader quest for political freedoms that began in 2011. Any discussion of rights, he argues, must incorporate LGBTQ rights as well.

This podcast is part of “Citizenship and Its Discontents: The Struggle for Rights, Pluralism, and Inclusion in the Middle East” a TCF project supported by the Henry Luce Foundation.

Participants include:

• Ahmed El Hady, activist and neuroscientist, Princeton University
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Kurdish Nationalism at an Impasse

Despite enjoying more autonomy than other parts of Kurdistan, Iraqi Kurdistan is losing its position as the center of gravity for Kurdish nationalism. The unwillingness of Kurdish elites to relinquish their power, economic crisis, and regional instability have made political evolution all the more difficult. As a result, Kurdish society and young Kurds in particular are disengaging from the political process. In this podcast, two researchers who conducted extensive fieldwork in Iraqi Kurdistan discuss the current political impasse of Kurdish nationalism. They argue for a new social contract that provides rights based on citizenship rather than party affiliation or patronage-based networks.

This podcast is part of “Citizenship and Its Discontents: The Struggle for Rights, Pluralism, and Inclusion in the Middle East,” a TCF project supported by the Henry Luce Foundation.

Participants include:

• Cale Salih, research officer, United Nations University Centre for Policy Research
• Maria Fantappie, Iraq senior adviser, International Crisis Group
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation