Order From Ashes

Iran and Saudi Start to Talk

Regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia have a hand in nearly every hot spot around the Middle East. The two rivals don’t control what happens, but they can play a major role in destabilizing battleground states—or calming tensions. There are many spots ripe for diplomacy: the war in Yemen, the simmering instability in Iraq and Syria, the political crisis in Lebanon.

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we hear Middle East expert Dina Esfandiary and Iraqi analyst Sajad Jiyad about the new round of diplomacy. What has prompted Iran and Saudi Arabia to be willing to talk, and where might they be willing to calm tensions?

Participants include:

• Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis Group
• Sajad Jiyad, fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

 

Thaw Between Turkey and Egypt

 

Tensions between Egypt and Turkey have run high for nearly a decade. Turkey has hosted Egyptian dissidents and opposition parties since the Egyptian coup in 2013; and the two countries support opposite sides in the Libyan War and have very nearly come into direct military conflict. Both are major U.S. partners, at least on paper: Turkey is a formal treaty ally in NATO, and Egypt is a top recipient of U.S. military aid.

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we hear from Turkey expert Nicholas Danforth and Egypt expert Michael Wahid Hanna about the recent, tentative thaw in relations between the two countries. Turkey and Egypt’s rivalry, and its unsettling consequences, serve as a reminder that there are many countries with power to drive events, and conflicts, in the Middle East. 

Participants include:

• Nicholas Danforth, senior visiting fellow, Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Yemen’s Wars at a Turning Point

Soon after taking office, President Biden announced that the United States would stop contributing offensive weapons to the war in Yemen. “This war has to end,” the president said. But the complex conflict in Yemen appears, to the contrary, to be heading for a new round of intense fighting, this time around the city of Marib. 

 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we talk to two analysts who know Yemen intimately: Nadwa al-Dawsari and Peter Salisbury. It might be possible for the United States to wash its hands of the Yemen war, they argue, but very hard for Washington to catalyze a resolution. What are the realistic options, and what’s best for the long-suffering civilians caught in the conflict?

Participants include:

• Nadwa Al-Dawsari, non-resident fellow, Middle East Institute
• Peter Salisbury, senior analyst, Yemen, International Crisis Group
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Rethinking American Assumptions about the Middle East

On this episode of Order from Ashes, we talk with Dahlia Dassa Kaye, the lead author of a new RAND Corporation study that advocates a major overhaul of U.S. strategy in the Middle East. Washington can and should jettison legacy arrangements that no longer make sense. Multi-billion dollar military assistance deals with Israel, Egypt, and Jordan were conceived nearly fifty years ago. Big-ticket weapons deals with Arabian monarchies have distorted American policy.

Dassa Kaye argues that the United States can redefine stability and invest in better governance, moving away from dysfunctional partnerships and counterproductive policies. The United States doesn’t have to choose between perpetual war and complete disengagement; as it ends its forever wars, Washington has an opportunity to invest in diplomatic, social, and political leverage that will bring more enduring stability to the Middle East.

Participants include:

• Dahlia Dassa Kaye, fellow, the Wilson Center and senior political scientist, the RAND Corporation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Egypt’s Revolution at 10

Ten years ago, the uprising in Tahrir Square toppled Egypt’s dictator and raised hopes for political reform across the Middle East. Great setbacks followed in Egypt, which now suffers under an even more repressive autocracy than the one it overthrew in 2011. 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, close observers of Egyptian political life explore the still unfolding legacy of the unsuccessful revolution of 2011. The threat and promise of Egypt’s uprising still makes Egypt’s military dictatorship nervous—and still suggests prospects for future democratic reforms.

 

Participants include:

• Naira Antoun, Mada Masr and The Century Foundation
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

War Comes Homes

Critics of hyper-militarized foreign policy argue that the abuses of America’s war on terror led in a direct line to the January 6 attempt to overturn the presidential election. On this episode of Order from Ashes, two advocates from the grassroots organization Win Without War dissect the connections between unaccountable foreign policy and surging authoritarianism.

Democracy is threatened in the United States because of global trends. Stephen Miles and Kate Kizer argue that deep systemic trends will continue to threaten democracy after Trump’s presidency. A serious attempt at accountability, and an investment in peaceful tools of power, can shift the United States away from the dangers of militarization.

Participants include:

• Stephen Miles, executive director, Win Without War
• Kate Kizer, policy director, Win Without War
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

America’s Attempted Coup

The challenge to American democracy has called into question some of the country’s deepest assumptions about exceptionalism. Fellows at The Century Foundation have been studying fragile democracy, authoritarianism, and militia rule in the Middle East for decades. 

We apply some of the lessons learned from studying authoritarian relapse around the world—from the importance of calling a coup attempt by its proper name, to the limits of the “war on terror” model for dealing with violent insurrectionists and white supremacist terrorism in the United States.

Participants include:

• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundation
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Nature and National Security in the Middle East

A fearsome array of climate and environmental woes is straining the Middle East, worsening the existing crisis of poor governance and weak states in the region. On this episode of “Order From Ashes,” we speak to climate researcher Peter Schwartzstein about some of the specific environmental emergencies in the Middle East, and some of the possible solutions.

The United States has many opportunities to incorporate environmental and climate change concerns into all its policymaking. Because of its acute crises of climate, governance, and security, the Middle East is particularly ripe for a new approach.

Drawing on the reports he spearheaded in TCF’s new initiative, “Nature and National Security in the Middle East,” Schwartzstein suggests some encouraging possible moves for Middle Eastern governments, civil society, and the United States to address this slow-burning emergency.

Participants include:

Peter Schwartzstein, independent researcher and 

Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

Promoting America’s Devalued Democracy

The United States always had difficulty squaring its record on the ground in the Middle East  with its efforts to promote rights and democracy. It’s even harder after the Trump presidency and a contested election, which featured the sitting president and many Republicans questioning the integrity of the electoral process without any basis in fact.

 

The Middle East’s long authoritarian relapse increasingly has echoes in the crisis in the United States. On this episode of “Order from Ashes,” we talk with Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy. We discuss the obstacles that the Trump presidency created for aspiring reformers in the Middle East, and assess the emboldened crop of autocrats who will challenge the Biden administration.

Participants include:

• Amy Hawthorne, deputy director for research, Project on Middle East Democracy
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation

What’s Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?

Egypt’s 2013 military coup and crackdown left the Muslim Brotherhood more adrift than ever before in its ninety-two-year history.

 

With tens of thousands of members surviving in exile in Turkey, the Muslim Brotherhood is undergoing new strains. Youth in the diaspora have experimented with new, liberal approaches to life, politics, and religion, pitting them against a rigid and aging Brotherhood leadership.

 

Abdelrahman Ayyash, author of the recent report, “The Turkish Future of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,” discusses how the Brotherhood has changed under unprecendented repression, and whether it can adapt enough to survive.

 

Participants include:

• Abdelrahman Ayyash, Egyptian researcher
• Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow, The Century Foundatio
• Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow, The Century Foundation