Order From Ashes

Hezbollah Enters the Iran War Catastrophe

Shownotes

By the fourth day of its war on choice against Iran, the United States government was offering a shifting and contradictory set of reasons it attacked — to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, or because Iran had missiles that could reach the US, or to preempt Iran from responding to Israel's preemptive attack.

It was clear from the start that the United States had no critical national security interest at stake, and that the war violates American and international law. It's also a guaranteed disaster for international security and American standing.

Century International fellow Sam Heller joins the Order from Ashes podcast from Beirut to discuss Hezbollah's entry into the conflict, the new dangers created by the war, and the baffling decision-making in Washington.

Related reading

Commentary, “Attacking Iran Is a Guaranteed Disaster,” Century International, by Thanassis Cambanis

Participants

Sam Heller is a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Wednesday, March 3. 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 104

Iran Prepares for War With America

Shownotes

In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran’s incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation.

Participants

Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Friday, February 27, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 103

Who Killed the International Liberal Order This Time?

Shownotes

Almost as soon as the international liberal order came into being after World War II, detractors began announcing its death or irrelevancy. Some disliked its hypocrisy: the United States and its allies preached democracy and human rights for all, but in practice only guaranteed them for some. Others disliked the restraints that the system placed on states that wanted to dominate or invade neighbors.

But while obituaries for the liberal order are nothing new, the last year has felt truly different. Donald Trump has used his second term to embrace a free-for-all of global competition, with no limits on the use of military and financial power, to pursue narrow, short-term interests. Gone is talk of the common good, universalism, and international law. 

Nicholas Danforth joins a raucous discussion on this episode of Order from Ashes, drawing on his recent essay in Foreign Policy. How much order and liberalism was there, really, to the international pact that prevailed from 1945 until, perhaps, 2025? And is that order really, finally, dead this time around? Are there more just and equitable ways to share a global commons?

Related reading

* Argument: Nick Danforth, “Who Killed the Liberal International Order? A Contested Idea Has Seen Many Alleged Deaths,” Foreign Policy, February 9, 2026

* Report: Nick Danforth, “Beyond Bad Borders: How Nationalism, Imperialism, and Power Politics Shaped the Modern Middle East,”  Century International, October 20, 2025

Participants

Nick Danforth is deputy editor of Foreign Policy and a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, February 16, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 102

Smugglers to Supply Chains to Regional Warriors

Shownotes

On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Peter Salisbury reports on his recent trip to the Gulf, new developments in the Yemen war, and the spread of drone and missile technology.

The Houthis have matured with astonishing speed from a traditional militia to a group capable of sourcing parts and building long-range drones. They're also capable of teaching other armed groups how to do the same thing.

One consequence: while the United States is walking away from peacemaking, Gulf powers—including Saudi, the United Arab Emirates, and the Houthis—are all increasing their military interventions in African conflicts.

Related reading

* Report, “From Smugglers to Supply Chains: How Yemen’s Houthi Movement Became a Global Threat,” Century International

Participants

Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, February 9, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 101

On War Powers, Congress Is MIA

Shownotes

President Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is just the latest American war initiated with no Congressional authorization. 

According to the Constitution, only Congress can decide to go to war. In practice, however, since 9/11 presidents have enjoyed complete freedom to go to war, or even wage secret and undeclared wars, without authorization from Congress, and with no accountability or oversight.  

On this episode of Order from Ashes, legal expert Brian Finucane explains how Congress could reassert its Constitutional power to decide when America goes to war. 

Finucane charts America’s descent into a norm of illegality in international conflict, how much that abuse of power has cost Americans at home, and how to restore Constitutional checks and balances. 

Participants

Brian Finucane is a senior adviser at International Crisis Group. He previously worked for a decade in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the U.S. Department of State.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Related reading

* Brian Finucane, “Dissecting the Trump Administration’s Effort to Circumvent the War Powers Resolution for Boat Strikes,” Just Security 

* Brian Finucane, “America Unbound in the Caribbean,” Foreign Affairs

* Report, “Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October,” International Crisis Group

Date: Monday, February 2, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 100

Who Will Rebuild Syria?

Shownotes:

Syria’s new president, former rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has just made another quantum leap in establishing his power over Syria, by persuading the United States to let Sharaa take over the Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria.

Sharaa has presented himself as an inclusive agent of change. On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Frederick Deknatel discusses Syria's reconstruction agenda, which worries many Syrians and should concern international policymakers as well.

Syria's reconstruction has an estimated cost of up to $400 billion, some twenty times the size of Syria’s GDP, and so far has mirrored many of the authoritarian practices of the deposed Assasd regime.

Without reforms, reconstruction risks ushering in a new era of clientelism and corruption in Syria, benefiting only Sharaa’s allies and international developers, while the Syrian people continue to be locked out of the decisions that will shape their future. 

*Commentary, “Syria’s Reconstruction Risks Cutting Out the Syrian People,” by Frederick Deknatel

Participants:

* Frederick DeKnatel, non-resident fellow, Century International

* Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International

Episode: Order from Ashes 99

Date: Jan. 26, 2026

America's Authoritarian Turn

America Turned Authoritarian in 2025. Century’s New Democracy Meter Puts a Number on It.

Shownotes

Just how badly has American democracy eroded during the first year of the second Trump administration? The Century Foundation’s new United States Democracy Meter objectively analyzes that question—and the answer is discomfiting. 

The index, which is the brainchild of veteran human rights researcher Nate Schenkkan and Century International director Thanassis Cambanis, ranks the health of American democracy on a 100-point scale across 23 indicators. The result: in the first year of Trump 2.0, the United States went from being a passing if imperfect democracy to behaving like an authoritarian state. In fact, American democracy is now at greater risk than at any time since Watergate, and it may even be approaching its pre-Civil Rights Movement nadir. 

Century’s chief of policy programs Angela Hanks joins Schenkkan and Cambanis to assess this dangerous moment for American democracy. The core problem is an all-powerful executive branch, made worse by a pliant Congress, a compromised judiciary, and grand corruption. But civil society, higher education, and rights also severely suffered in 2025. Elections remain mostly free—and a possible way out—but there are storm clouds on that horizon, as well.

* Report, “Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025,” by Nate Schenkkan and Thanassis Cambanis

Participants

Nate Schenkkan is an independent human rights researcher. From 2012 to 2025 he worked at Freedom House, most recently as senior director of research. While at Freedom House, he ran the annual index Nations in Transit from 2015 to 2018, and wrote the overview essay for Freedom in the World in 2019.

Angela Hanks is chief of policy programs at The Century Foundation. Angela has extensive experience developing and advancing policies and narratives that promote an inclusive and expansive vision for the economy. Angela most recently served as the associate director of external affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), where she led the bureau’s external engagement strategy to ensure its policy agenda was informed by experts, industry stakeholders, and consumers across the country. 

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, January 19, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 98

Iraq's Lessons for Venezuela

Shownotes

Order from Ashes returns after a long hiatus. On this episode of the podcast, Zaid Al-Ali and Thanassis Cambanis remember the real lessons of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq—and that history's stark warning for American interventionist fantasies in Venezuela.

Participants

* Zaid Al-Ali, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs

* Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International

Zaid Al-Ali is a visiting fellow at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs and a senior adviser at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Zaid’s first book, ‘The Struggle Iraq’s Future’ was published by Yale University Press in 2014.  His second book, ‘Arab Constitutionalism: The Coming Revolution’ was published by Cambridge University Press in 2022. You can find him on X at @zalali, BlueSky at @zalali.bsky.social, and on his website, zaidalali.com.

Episode: Order From Ashes 97

Date: Monday, January 12, 2026

Sistani’s Historic Legacy

During decades of turmoil, war, and regime change in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has played a critical, often overlooked role—steering Iraq away from sectarian conflict, promoting civic democracy over direct theocracy, and quietly seeking to calm regional tensions.

 

On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad explains how Sistani has appealed to a majority of the world’s millions of Shia Muslims with his indirect model of clerical authority, a stark contrast to the competing model of direct clerical rule advanced by his compatriots in Iran. 

 

Jiyad has published a new political biography,  God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which offers the first comprehensive account of Sistani’s legacy and draws on original sources and hundreds of interviews during decades of fieldwork inside Iraq. Jiyad 

 

Observers of Iraq and of Shia power will find God’s Man in Iraq an incomparable appraisal of Sistani’s legacy—and an invaluable guide to the perilous transition that will follow his tenure.

 

You can learn more and order copies on the book’s homepage.  God’s Man in Iraq is also available in Arabic.

 

Read: 

• Commentary: "The Man Who Saved Iraq," by Sajad Jiyad (in English and Arabic)

• Book page: God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, by Sajad Jiyad
• Arabic book page: رجل الله في العراق

 

Participants:

• Sajad Jiyad, fellow, Century International
• Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International

How Is the Gaza War Affecting the Middle East?

The Middle East has faced growing instability, violence, and the risk of a wider war ever since October 7. 

 

Most attention is understandably focused on Israel, where 1,200 people were killed in a single day, and Gaza, where the death toll is steadily climbing past 11,000, the majority children and women. 

 

But the wider region is experiencing a level of violence that is cause for alarm: near-daily clashes between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel; steady attacks on the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria; and increasingly bold military initiatives by Yemen’s Houthi rebel forces.

 

How has the Gaza war changed the wider Middle East? What new dynamics are shaping conflicts and diplomacy among the regional powers and in the region’s many simmering conflicts? How will America’s bear hug of Israel affect other American interests in the Middle East?

 

Century International fellows Aron Lund, Sam Heller, and Thanassis Cambanis are joined by Michael Wahid Hanna from International Crisis Group to step back from the day-to-day developments of the Gaza war and assess the changing regional context.

 

Read: 

• Commentary: “It’s Time for a Ceasefire in Gaza—and Then a New Push for Peace,” by Thanassis Cambanis, Dahlia Scheindlin, and Sam Heller
• Commentary: “America Needs to Prevent a Regional War in the Middle East,” by Sam Heller and Thanassis Cambanis

Participants:

• Sam Heller, fellow, Century International
• Aron Lund, fellow, Century International
• Michael Wahid Hanna, director, U.S. program, International Crisis Group
• Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International